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World Cup 2018

The World Cup has arrived! In anticipation of the world’s biggest football tournament we asked three wealth managers which investment opportunities and which national teams are destined to fly or flop over this summer…

Jonathan Moyes, head of research, Whitechurch Securities, Bristol

Outright Winner

Investment-wise, Odey Absolute Return. Full of flair and passion for the game, their distinctive style and ability is sure to give them the advantage heading into the summer, regardless of the twists and turns that lay ahead.

On the pitch, Brazil also have a very strong chance this summer.

Dark Horse

England. Rarely have expectations been so low for this unloved part of the world. Anything other than an early cliff edge exit is sure to lift spirits. While having recently avoided some large risks, this has done little to improve the mood of investors, there could be some value in backing England over the summer.

On the pitch, England. Past performance is no indication of future performance!

Overhyped Underachievers

China. No doubt there is potential, however, are we now too late for the party? While recent performance has caused some euphoria to set in, history suggests unexpected drops in performance are commonplace and we should be careful of backing such a well-loved story at these levels.

In terms of the football, France mirrors my views on China.

Wooden Spoon

UK government bonds. On (gilt edged) paper, this is one of highest quality assets money can buy. However, this quality does not come cheap, and faith in this quality may well be misplaced. Recent weakness in performance may be a sign that cracks are beginning to appear.

Belgium are a strong contender for the World Cup’s wooden spoon this year.

How will England fare in the World Cup?

After trouncing Belgium in the final group game, confidence reaches an all-time high, and unencumbered by pressure, England go on to make light work of Poland, Brazil, France and then Spain in the final to come home with the glory!

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Jonathan Moyes, head of research, Whitechurch Securities, Bristol

Outright Winner

Investment-wise, Odey Absolute Return. Full of flair and passion for the game, their distinctive style and ability is sure to give them the advantage heading into the summer, regardless of the twists and turns that lay ahead.

On the pitch, Brazil also have a very strong chance this summer.

Dark Horse

England. Rarely have expectations been so low for this unloved part of the world. Anything other than an early cliff edge exit is sure to lift spirits. While having recently avoided some large risks, this has done little to improve the mood of investors, there could be some value in backing England over the summer.

On the pitch, England. Past performance is no indication of future performance!

Overhyped Underachievers

China. No doubt there is potential, however, are we now too late for the party? While recent performance has caused some euphoria to set in, history suggests unexpected drops in performance are commonplace and we should be careful of backing such a well-loved story at these levels.

In terms of the football, France mirrors my views on China.

Wooden Spoon

UK government bonds. On (gilt edged) paper, this is one of highest quality assets money can buy. However, this quality does not come cheap, and faith in this quality may well be misplaced. Recent weakness in performance may be a sign that cracks are beginning to appear.

Belgium are a strong contender for the World Cup’s wooden spoon this year.

How will England fare in the World Cup?

After trouncing Belgium in the final group game, confidence reaches an all-time high, and unencumbered by pressure, England go on to make light work of Poland, Brazil, France and then Spain in the final to come home with the glory!

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

Sophie Kennedy, head of research, EQ Investors, London

Outright Winner:

I’d highlight Rathbone Global Opportunities as a potential shot on target this month. The fund has significant exposure to non-UK assets as well as thematic plays in technology, healthcare and financials.

The Brazilian all-star trio of Neymar, Firminho and Coutinho – who unfortunately for us are non-UK assets – are unlikely to need to pick up momentum until the knock-out stages.

Dark Horse:

JOHCM UK Dynamic. The manager, Alex Savvides (not Gareth Southgate), is by no means underrated, but investing in the UK domestic story remains non-consensus and I see this as an opportunity that may do better than expected.

On the pitch, England will likely be a non-consensus choice internationally, but with no expectations to make it through to the group stages, this may be their time.

Overhyped underachievers:

While there is certainly a place for passive investments to gain exposure to the most efficient equity markets globally, many popular index funds and ETFs which have gathered significant assets could be set for an own goal.  

While I’m sure that Messi won’t be defaulting on his obligations, I’m not sure even he will be able to save the overhyped Argentina.

Wooden Spoon:

With spreads in investment grade and high yield corporate credit as tight as Cristiano Ronaldo’s shorts, the relative reward in these assets is lower than their equity equivalents.  

Egypt will be hoping their key man Mo Salah can return to full fitness in time to hit their goal target, but I would try and avoid them in the office sweepstake.

And finally, England:

No expectation of a pony means no risk of disappointment.

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Nigel Rawlings, investment manager, Malloch Melville, London

Outright Winner:

Goals Soccer Centres. Not a company I follow, but if they benefit from the wall-to-wall TV coverage of the World Cup as tennis courts do during Wimbledon, this is surely a high scoring winner.

It has to be between Brazil and Germany as to who will lift the trophy. I go for Brazil to counter the disaster four years ago.

Dark Horse:

With investment trusts, such as Vietnam Enterprise and Vinacap Vietnam Opportunities sporting massive discounts to NAV, I think that Vietnam is the dark horse market that offers plenty of star players for the home crowd to admire.

Belgium is my tip on the pitch.

Overhyped Underachiever:

He’s had a lot of injured players this season but I fear that there could be more on the cards at Woodford Patient Capital Trust. The fans really are having to be patient with this team. Maybe there will be talk of a change of manager!

And football-wise, Portugal – despite winning the Euros and being ranked fourth in the world, I’m not convinced.

Wooden Spoon:

Europe (EU). It keeps its skills up by constantly kicking the tin can down the road with ultra-low interest rates and QE but now one of the most important team members has gone feral and might join two other players in receiving a yellow card. It looks like in future they will only be playing in the Northern League and will struggle to achieve Five Stars.

On the pitch, Panama. Everyone loves an underdog.

And England?

Will pleasantly surprise in the early stages, although will struggle against Belgium. Will move to the knockout stage as second in group but will lose in the quarter finals to one of the big teams.

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