Portugal and Greece likely to exit eurozone, Philip Milburn says

Greece, Portugal and Cyprus should never have been admitted to the Eurozone in the first place.

" this portfolio remains at the defensive end of that scale. It looks for only the highest quality companies within the more adventurous bond sector"

"and will normally limit speculative or 'junk' bonds (rated BBB- or below) to no more than 40% of the fund. Most of the fund is invested investment grade bonds rated BB+ and BBB."

We can always rely on the Rating Agencies!!

A new, if controversial, idea for Greece

Most people on this board reckon that Greece will exit the EU, one way or t'other.

What then for Greece?

Perhaps the time has come for a major political and economic tie-up with Turkey.

The Turks used to 'own' Greece lock stock and barrel.

To this day the Greeks continue import food from Turkey as they are unable to grow enough to feed themselves, not because they are bad farmers, they just do not have enough suitable land.

To give an idea, the water-melon (karpousie) that the Greeks eat at home and serve in their restaurants is most probably grown in Anatolia. The flour in the Greek bread that you eat whilst you are on your holidays is probably Turkish, and it goes on and on, right down to olive oil.

The history between the two nations stinks, just terrible, however we are now in a different generation and the people with the bitterest of memories are mostly dead - of old age.

When we in Western Europe think of Greece we think of 'gods', Zeus, the Delphic Oracle, ancient ruins, statues and all the rest. We, in the northern climes, also think of warm holidays, sunlight, simple delicious food, well being and all that is attendant upon that.

Moving on:

What would be the upside for Turkey?

Certain members of the EU, excluding Britain, have made it plain that they do not want Turkey in their club. This would appear to be because Turkey is a country is not Christian, thus Turkey has no opportunity of joining, this despite the fact that the Turks are becoming a seriously wealthy nation.

Greece is possibly one of the greatest tourist destinations in the world, the majority of its FOREX comes through tourism. Now that they are out of money to invest in infra-structure this happy situation will begin to deteriorate pretty rapidly towards third world status.

The Turks have buckets of money to invest, thus some sort of an arrangement seems sensible.

There are other reasons that make sense. For instance the Cyprus situation could be resolved at the stroke of a pen so that this long running open sore would be healed overnight.

The only thing that would sabotage this proposal is pride, the way that that matters now appear to to be going we are now talking about survival.

The real question is, do the Greeks want to be pushed around by Berlin, or would it be preferable to come to a tolerable economic arrangement with their neighbours?

With the EU proving inhospitable, Turkey has been turning back to its Asian hinterland, much of which was once part of the Ottoman empire. So it wouldn't be much of a stretch to accommodate Greece as well. Plenty of Greeks did well under the Ottomans, and it is said that many Christian Cretans wept when their Muslim neighbours were deported to Turkey in 1922. I doubt that many Cretans - or other Greeks - have such fond memories of the Germans.

Thanks Chazza,

I was thinking of getting a tin helmet to protect myself from the likely responses

to my posting,

I am amazed that the first comment has been thoughtful and positive.

All the best,

sd.

it amazes me that Germany and France and a puppet president in Greece can inflict so much pain on the people who are not to blame for the crisis. Nothing about the rescue plan is aimed at helping greece but only preventing their own greedy bankers from going bust. They will only delay the inevitable and make it all a lot worse in the process

As a Greek,

I welcome all your comments above, and appreciate the support you are showing us. Stormdog, I even appreciate your suggestions, firstly becuase you care enough to think about a solution, and secondly, because you are at least thinking "out of the box", and not limiting solutions in any sort of context ... ie without any preconceived solution ... your idea is truly controversial, and the first thought is one of total incredulity that you should even write down such an idea ...... your sensibility and logic has its merits, but ......

After 300 years of subjugation ("owning Greece") the idea of becoming part of Turkeyis, in my opinion, not even up for discussion ... The Germans were in for 5 years, they massacred our people and plundered our treasures, but were quickly bundled out .... we are still awaiting our reparations for the horror of those years ...... and they are back doing the same ....

your comments about feeding ourselves is not accurate ... the watermelons we eat are definitely ours .... we also grow the finest vegetables in all of Europe (tomatoes, cucumbers etc )... and the olive oil is definitely ours, not Turkish .... we have enough olive oil for ourselves and export the balance .... I grow all the above in subsistence quantities myself, so I am not just countering your comments ....

Our (Greek) problem is not that we cannot produce the finest and best , (all visitors to our shores comment how tasty our (not Turkish) fresh food is) .... we simply have not made the leap from subsistence to large scale export oriented production ....

Stormdog, your thought has definitely brought up a very good idea ..... maybe the recreation of the Byzantine empire (ie pre Ottoman Empire) is the solution :-) .....

I believe a serious review of the relationship is long overdue. I believe that joint venture partnerships to share and unite in pursuing common interests and resources could be a viable option ... the biggest problems to overcome are trust and greed ....

Thank you Emmanouel,

Really I am not saying that Greece should be part of Turkey again, forgive me please for my clumsy words that have given this impression.

Greece and Turkey will stand alone, this does not mean that they cannot work closely together by identifying areas of mutual economic benefit that can be started in a small way and developed from there.

What these are I have no idea, I am sure that they exist though, sadly I am not an economist.

It could even start from a an interwoven common heritage, this way it will be possible to get the 'chattering classes' and opinion makers in both countries on board from the start.

Maybe simultaneous exhibitions of ancient Greek culture both in Greece and Turkey, with stuff borrowed from museums all over the world then a second one of Byzantine influence in the region, all fairly non=controversial stuff if handled correctly. The financing for such a scheme would be very easy indeed.

If it is done right it would be a big stride in the right direction.

At the end of these festivities some sort of pre-arranged bi-lateral trade agreement would be announced, along with the opening up of the borders for the inhabitants of the Greek Islands so that people who were not exchanged would be able to meet the people who were exchanged, and so on.

The most important thing to avoid, at all cost, is getting trammelled in religions.

It is through religious differences the negative is able to maintain its strangle-hold on the psyche of both nations thus allowing the poison to keep flowing from generation to generation.

I am too old now to pick up and run with this, I am an elderly unbiased Englishman who happens to be able to understand something of the heart of this miserable state of affairs.

The only factors necessary to bring about a total evolution in relations between the two countries are one visionary Greek leader and one visionary

Turkish leader.

There is plenty for Turkey in such an arrangement.

Turkey is assailed by total mistrust from Greece, Greek Cypriot and Armenia.

it almost tips into hatred when it comes to certain EU States.

If there was some way of at least of Turkey making a small beginning with its neighbours it would start to alleviate the pressures from these nightmare situations.

For Greece it would be of great benefit also as there would be the inward investment now so much required in order to get money flowing again with goods being manufactured/grown and sold in the international market place.

This would not, repeat not, be a Turkish takeover, rather it would be the beginnings of a healing process that as it progresses would give rise to presently undreamed of possibilities. It is traction that is required.

All the above are generalities, it needs extensively working and the time to

make a start is now, this is a window of opportunity, particularly so since neither country is being ruled by the military - at the moment!

Perhaps you can think of an overall solution that would be better for these two great nations.

All the best.

Dear Stormdog, I am with you on all the above, it would be a great boost for the region, and even create a balance between east and west Europe, and provide a bridge into Asia .... Now to find these great leaders .... Let's chat about that offline if you are interested

I believe what is proposed by Stormdog is very interesting. The sentiment in Turkey seems to be turning against the EU and all that it entails and who can blame them. They are doing very well by not being a part of this Franco German debacle and their economy is becoming a major factor in the region ( without them). When Greece finally escapes from the clutches of the German, French, UK and US banks where the US130 billion is going to end up anyway and if there could be a rapprochement between Greece and Turkey an entirely new vista opens up. Behind every cloud --- etc. It would take time but what is there to lose?

Emmanouel,

Thank you.

Of course I am delighted to keep on communicating with you.

These ideas need to be 'floated' within Greece itself, not just on Citywire where it looks as if you are the only Greek subscriber!

Somehow a Greek national debate needs to be started.

Before this goes public a lot of thought needs to go into the matter and decisions made as to how to eventually make the 'pitch' to the Greek electorate.

These 'calls' have to be made by the Greek people themselves and not by some rather elderly Brit living in Central London who has no real knowledge

of the Greeks or Greece whatsoever, is ignorant of the true psyche of the Greek people and would probably make classic mistakes that would soon de-rail everything before it even got going!

My only plus point, if it can be called that, is that at times I do have a certain vision so that sometimes, and not always, allows me to see through to the very heart.

I have no interest in 'nationalities' , race, personal or political power, recognition or great wealth, these are just not my thing.

What is my thing is universality.

To put it at its most basic. This expression of universality is to do with and the hopes and aspirations of people everywhere, not just Greece, to be able to lead their lives in freedom and peace without fear within a secure environment where it is perfectly possible to get a job, bring up and educate a family, put food on the table and shoes on the children's feet and have the right of free speech.

In my humble opinion if the government of any country is unable to provide this scenario then the country involved is a de facto failed state.

MOVING ON:

It would appear that the people who you are initially trying to get interested and 'onside' are the educated younger middle class, perhaps between the ages of 20 and 30. It is these people who have the most to lose if in their own country there no longer exists a possibility of jobs, being able to get a home, start a family and have a reasonable life.

It is totally and utterly unacceptable, to this bystander, to see a fellow European country on the brink of being totally flushed away as a consequence of the bad political leadership from the past.

Having thought and thought about it, I am utterly convinced that the rich countries of Northern Europe want Greece to just go away. They would even be prepared to balance the Greek books and give a hundred billion on top if Greece would agree to quietly leave the EU.

If Greece started negotiating with its non EU neighbours, the one(s) who demonstrably are as unwanted as Greece, within seven years the economy of Greece will be transformed.

Please understand very, very well, and never forget, this is NOT about revolution, this is entirely about evolution.

There must be no bodies on the streets, assassinations or torture,

what there has to be is democracy and freedom.

If you can gain the support of your fellow citizens, and it is they who will decide, it is doable, if not, not.

Whether you can succeed would appear to depend upon your clarity of your vision and expression

Perhaps it is now the moment to start running the idea past your friends and contacts and thus gauge whether or not there would be any real support from them.

I look forward to hearing from you again.

With many thanks,

stormdog.

Emmanouel,

Apologies, my rewriting and editing the above inadvertently left out some of the words.

Mr. Booth.

Thank you.

I believe that it is just as you have written.

Who knows, in the end Greece might yet save democracy. That would be ironic. When they finally regain their independence it could finally bring about the end of German hegemony in Europe before it gets even worse. Again ( third time in 98 years) the Germans have brought Europe to its knees aided by France whose totally misguided foreign policy has been a major contributory factor. 'Vivre la differance' Who ever thought it was possible for a multi cultural, multi lingual set of countries with totally divergent economies could be a United States anyway. The only way of keeping such a union together in the end would be by force. 'Vive la difference'.

Thank you again.

In fact I had wondered if an area of the world that had been cradle of democracy might somehow spring to life and save democracy, then I thought it might be a little too fanciful.

The idea of the Germans being almost begged to take a third bite of the cherry, this time without the necessity of an army, merely underlines the shoddiness of the European leadership in general.

If Scotland ditches us maybe we should go in with Greece and Turkey also!

Did you know that In the days of Elizabeth I, so many Turkic people were coming to settle in Britain that a visa system had to be introduced for the very first time?

Centuries later, it is entirely possible that we all have a little Turkic blood coursing through our veins anyway.

I wonder if Emmanouel will decide to pick up the ball and run with it, things are now so bad in Greece that really there is everything to gain and nothing much left to lose.

Interesting. Don't forget also that quite a few of the soldiers based on Hadrians Wall would probably have been eating donner kebabs and what are the true origins of the kilt and hagis I wonder!

The more I think about it this whole mess could be a blessing in disguise and funnily enough I'm actually thinking of relocating to that part of the world as once the deed is done ( and it can't be long now as the vultures have virtually extracted everything they ( Societe General et al) can, there will be much to do. Perhaps I should take up poetry and long distance swimming.

I hope Emmanouel is still with us as perhaps he can pass on some hope to his compatriots.

Emmanouel may have got bored and bailed, I was unable to reply to him for a couple of days, do hope not, we will see.

Not a bad idea to go and live in Greece.

If you chose a decent sized island near the Anatolian coast-line, Samos perhaps, it should be as cheap as chips to live there, the local wine is quite possible also.

From Samos you can always take the ferry to Izmir which has an international airport, in the off season you would probably have to travel via Athens.

Instead of long-distance swimming it would profit you to learn about line fishing from a dinghy.

You will notice that in autumn you will catch fish that live elsewhere in the summer months.

There must be lobsters somewhere, there is endless olive oil from which you can make mayonnaise to go with cold lobster.

Though goodness knows what the medical services are like.

I thank you for your continued interest in this debate, my country, and particularly her survival and development. I am definitely not bored, and certainly have not bailed. I am extremely passionate about my paradise, and I treasure your thoughts and comments .... I have simply been occupied with the daiy routine of living and surviving in very challenging and interesting timew in Greece. Please give me a couple of days to mull over and send my repsonse ... I hope I don't lose you all in the interim .. (Aside: Greece is a paradise to live in .... if you can endure the Greek attitude to life in general .. more later ... :-)

Emmanouel,

Most happy to wait.

sd.